Stamp Books, Herd Mentality, Multipliers and Lighting Candles

Way back in my early years (as the earth cooled and mastodons roamed the plains), I remember proudly pasting stamps in a little album that, when filled, could be redeemed for a U. S. Savings Bond. This was the remnants of a program started during WWII that made the purchase of bonds easier through the installment plan.

Most importantly, it created a sense of optimism and shared responsibility for school children. Even with pennies a week, we could do our part to help. We knew that our contribution, by itself, really didn't matter much - but every little bit helped. And, with hundreds of thousands of kids participating, the amount of cumulative impact was notable. We acted as individuals but the positive effects were from the group.

We usually think of the term "herd mentality" in negative terms because it infers massive group actions that seemingly go without individual motivation, direction or thought. If you've ever watched a flock of sheep bounding about a meadow in close formation, you've seen the frantic actions to mimic each other and move in amazing unison.

Sadly, we are seeing the most negative, most damaging type of herd mentality today and it is certainly not as funny to watch as the sheep. No, it is more likened to lemmings desperately shoving each other into the sea as more arrive at the shore.

We are all experiencing some level of economic distress; there's no need to debate this or illustrate it further. In fact, the amount of press coverage and commentary on this subject has apparently caused an acceleration in feelings of panic and lack of confidence.

We can understand and certainly empathize with a belt-tightening on the parts of those who have lost their jobs, are struggling to maintain home ownership or have legitimate reasons to fear further personal economic disruption. While this amounts to an alarming number of people, it is critical for us to realize: Only a small portion of our population is truly justified in "opting out" from participation in our interdependent consumer economy.

Yet, it seems that the vast majority of us have turned off the tap for nearly all discretionary spending. The people who are truly hurting are not making the situation worse - it's the rest of us who are seemingly part of a huge negative herd action that are the culprits.

We are acting as individuals, but the negative effects are from the group. And, we are making things worse on a daily basis.

Economists use the term "multiplier" to illustrate how economic and monetary policies often have positive effects beyond the amount of stimulus inserted. This makes intuitive sense. We can easily see that spending on nearly any type of good or service has a positive ripple effect as the effects are seen in concentric circles far beyond the initial buyer and seller.

We seem to have collectively forgotten that the effects of a negative multiplier are real and have disastrous consequences. Lack of spending on nearly any type of good or service has a devastating negative ripple effect far beyond the initial buyer and seller.

It is sometimes disheartening to see evidence that our collective attitudes are often lacking in faith, confidence and common sense. While few would doubt the intense light created by millions of lit candles, there seems to be a disconnect in understanding that this can only result from millions of individual decisions to strike a match.

It is your turn to light a candle. Those without the means are counting on you. If you have the ability to make purchases, you have a both an obligation to others and yourself to take individual action.

Our economic health is in your hands.

Solutions Through Simplicity And Focus - A Call For Action

This next paragraph was sent to the White House recently. It is 497 characters. The limit for a email to the President is 500 characters.

We need to radically simplify the process for drafting legislation. The constitution contains no specific requirements or mandate on the scope or complexity of a bill; our current system has failed and threatens timely solutions. Current verbose bills lack clarity allowing patronage which delays or prevents passage. A resolution to require only single concept bills to emerge for vote would create clarity and lack of unrelated riders. Real change needs simplicity, concise focus and actions.

It is not easy to express anything concisely. Operating with mandated limits makes it difficult. The basic structure was laid down, word choices and punctuation were changed; even the white space that would have made it easier to read had to be eliminated.

Not easy but doable.

We've all heard stories about bizarre additions to law which were buried inside 500-800 page bills and cringe at the idiocy of the process. It would seem that the majority of votes which result in passage of legislation are often done with full knowledge that certain provisions are pure pork while many others simply don't belong with the content that represents that major focus of the bill.

Sadly, while most legislators wouldn't readily admit this, it doesn't take much imagination or cynicism to believe that not every word of every bill is read and votes are cast to approve ridiculous or even damaging actions that seemingly became invisible.

So, how does this happen? It happens because the general concept of the bill is recognized as being needed to allow or prevent specific outcomes in our society. It is often more desirable to pass legislation that contains extraneous or unwanted provisions than to delay the important results which represent the true simple concept of the legislation.

We have overwhelmingly elected an administration that focused on our need to have change in the way we have conducted our affairs. We have supported the rejection of business as usual in Washington and have been excited by the proposition that we could get back in control of the substance of our freedom in this land or opportunity. We have been filled with hope that our leaders will step up and address the monumental challenges caused by many years - perhaps decades - of losing our focus and direction. We have looked the other way too long and know it. We have tolerated greed and short-sighted incompetence and now are enraged that it has done the damage that we always feared.

Now is the time to demand swift and intelligent actions from our government. While we can find many illustrations to the contrary, the overwhelming majority of those who serve are intelligent, conscientious and motivated to make things better.

Let's make it easy for them by demanding a change in the way we propose and construct legislation.

It would be folly to try to limit a bill to 500 words or even mandate a maxium page count - although that would not be unreasonable. It is certainly possible to draft legislation which - by design - must focus on a single concept or series of closely related issues. It is not hard to find a way to identify and reject items that simply don't belong. The identification process could be part of the bill if needed.

This can only be done with passage of a bill which formalizes this change and prevents a bill without concise focus from reaching the stage of full House or Senate debate or vote.

If you agree, just go here (Email To The President) and send this message (You can add more, but make sure it starts with this and a couple of returns for white space):

I agree that is time for a change. I support legislation to require expedited bill passage through Single Concept Legislation.

You have 373 characters left. If you use any, make every one count!

Are The Terrorists Winning? Do You Know Who They Are?

The simplest definition of a terrorist is one who creates fear, chaos and discontent by upsetting the order and organization of society through their acts.

The actions of those who were responsible for the agony and national calamity of 911 would certainly match that definition. Their mission was to pursue their agenda and accomplish their goals with no regard to the pain caused by their actions. It mattered little that they may have believed in their cause or their tactics. Their evil was in their deeds and their effects. It had little or nothing to do with their motivation.

When we saw what they had done, we acted to prevent similar deeds. Through our leaders and with our puzzled cooperation, we responded over the last seven years with platitudes, color-coded proclamations and significant erosion in our privacy and personal freedoms. We have institutionalized security procedures that seem annoying to many, questionable to most and seem to provide little comfort or assurance that they have or will prevent further disruption in our society.

It is if we have suspended the laws of probability and expect lightning to strike in the same place - not just once - but again and again. We have poured our liquids into tiny bottles, taken off our shoes and participated in the delusion that we are somehow accomplishing the prevention of terrorist acts.

While it is true that nobody has commandeered a flight recently, it might be due mostly to hardened cockpit doors and none of the the other precautions.

It seems that, unless those who would commit terrorist acts are extremely irrational and stupid, they would probably look for other methods to inflict their injuries on the freedoms, peace and prosperity that has been the hallmark of our society.

Yes, it would be best if they had a strategy to go where no one is looking; to act where there is little or no restraint and to openly hide their deeds behind the mantle of free enterprise and laissez-faire economics.

We shouldn't be afraid of those who are simply pursuing the nearly institutionalized path that we have allowed to be carved out. Or should we?

There seems to be little doubt that the economic terror we are experiencing worldwide has its roots in a variety of areas including greed, selfish incompetence and lack of oversight by those who have been appointed as our leaders.

Things are pretty bad.

The "remedies" that have been applied are mysterious, mostly ineffectual and seem to contain the seeds of economic weeds that may choke out any positive effects.

Things are getting worse.

Let's be upfront about "calling a spade a spade". To paraphrase that comedian's routine about "You might be a redneck...", lets identify the terrorist actions currently in play.

• If they foreclose on a mortgage with little chance of financial benefit through the sale of the asset; if they refuse to negotiate any interim solution - they might be a terrorist.
• If they manipulate credit card interest to instantly create insolvency in previously solvent businesses - they might be a terrorist.
• If they hold money given to them to stimulate lending or use it for other purposes - they might be a terrorist.
• If they take no leadership action to provide oversight to dispensing hundreds of billions of dollars; if they refuse to listen to those who are alarmed - they might be a terrorist.
• If they use events as an excuse to eliminate jobs while not enduring current financial stress - they might be a terrorist.

Is the apparent accusation of labelling select areas of business and government as "terrorists" irrational or just irreverent?

Is there any purpose in using this emotionally-charged label other than arrogant sensationalism?

Let's return to the premise of this editorial: "Their evil was in their deeds and their effects. It had little or nothing to do with their motivation."

It seems frustrating that there is often great truth in commonly used, trite expressions. We learn not to trust them because they are seemingly shallow, "pat" answers. In this case, you can be the judge on the applicability of this: "If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem".

Otherwise competent, well-meaning people are working on problem solutions in the midst of these unsettling events - and making things worse. Let's not sit silently - mesmerized by fear - while common sense and decency scream in our heads: "This is not right. We have to change this course."

We need leadership. While we are in a representative democracy, we are not absolved from participation. Leadership and problem solutions can and must come from all areas of our society.

Speak. Write. We need your help.

Faith In The Captain

I would be the first to admit that dealing with our massive financial, social and ethical crisis is not easy.

I would agree that, as the situation unfolds, it might be necessary to make changes in course.

Even in direction.

But, we need to have some faith in the folks who are really able to take actions. Those that can debate wtih others and jointly - or even unillaterally - make a decision need to have some supporters.

As it stands, it doesn't seem that the impotent actions of Congress - nor the unchecked actions of the Treasury Department - have much support. They also don't seem to have much effect.

At worse, they may not matter at all.

From the earliest days up to today, the actions of the ship's company are based on a (mostly) unshakeable faith that the Capain was making the right decisons.

What does the crew do when they see that the Captain is steering for a periolous reef.

Did they stand by and trust his judgement? That would have been the dutiful and honorable action.

What did they do when they looked him in the eye and saw an absence of mental activity.

Help him stay on course. Look away and assume they were wrong?

Shame on them.

Shame on us.

Was Fletcher Christian wrong? Was Captain Queeg right?

You'd better decide. And, be damn quick about it!

Villagers With Torches

Remember the Frankenstein movie? Remember the scene when the villagers became an angry mob and marched up the hill to the castle with torches in hand?

Where the hell are they now? Why isn't the current level of insanity in our society being met with more emotion - more outrage?

We are taught as children that anger is a negative emotion and must be controlled. In some cases, that might be desirable.

When we have our current level of social perils, it seems that we should consider whether we are being a bit too passive about expressing our fears, frustrations and, yes - anger.

I'll volunteer to get this latent emotion starting to bubble up. There can certainly be risk in creating what some might call a mob sense of panic and anger; there is obviously a huge downside in continuing on our current timid course.

OK. Let's fire the opening shot.

In the past six weeks we've been inundated with news and commentary on the "Bailout" of the auto companies. While I won't certainly defend many of their lame, inefficient and greedy decisions in the past - I also won't join in the nearly irrational bashing they have received during the public and governmental debate about their actions and fate.

Hey. Give me a break. Are you kidding? I heard the most amazingly idiotic and yet forcefully self-righteous commentaries from seemingly intelligent people that it made me consider whether I was in some bizarre world of parallel existence.

These intelligentsia mouthed a series of inaccurate or half-truths that were wrapped up and delivered in a condescending tirade against the evil Big Three. They rattled on with verbal diarrhea about "how they didn't make the cars Americans wanted" and quality stereotypes that are at least 20 years out of date. They hinted that the management of these companies should step down. They never acknowledged that the public wanted and continued to buy trucks and SUV's until gas spiked over $4. Nor did they seem to understand the cause of Detroit's cash crisis was merely an effect of an external economic house of cards impacting everyone.

The congressional hearings consisted of a huge amount of self-serving diatribes on the part of congressmen who were often misinformed, had obvious levels of bias and offered liitle encouragement that adressing serious issues is really a task that the body can really accomplish.

Magicians are clever in performing their illusions. They mentally walk us in the direction that steers our attentions toward a diversion and away from their actions. While we are focussed on the action on the left, they are working on the right - away from our sight and awareness.

While I don't want to give Washington credit for magical powers, it seems that they have (at least in this case) mastered the ability to create a diversion of monumental proportions.

In the midst of thousands of hours of debate, talk show discussions, blogs and editorials in all types of media over what has now been whittleD down to an apparent $15 Billion loan program...

...a hand-full of people, not directly accountable to the American public are actively passing out what is approaching (or maybe has already exceeded) ONE TRILLION DOLLARS!

This money is being passed out with little apparent oversight to the sector of our economy that has created siginifcant peril to the stability of our society and has resulted in the most painful economic downturn in recent history. These are the same people who have made amazaing personal fortunes while gambling and playing games with the assets and futures of billions of people worldwide.

This crisis was not created by GM selling Escalades that got 15mpg or Chrysler's quality problems. We are in this mess due purely to greed and incompetence in both Washington and Wall Street.

It seems that it is OK to beat up Detroit, but nobody is laying a glove on the perpetrators of disaster.

Where they hell are the villagers when you need them?

Passions And Analysis

Since I have been blessed (or cursed) with a mind that combines high amounts of both analytical abilities with a passion to express those thoughts, the name of this blog seems to make sense.

I attended a professional seminar years ago that was entitled "Social Styles Sales Strategies". It was very useful and, like most effective strategies, based on a very logical and simple concept. While the seminar examined Assertiveness and Responsiveness, you can use this principle to evaluate any human characteristics and find a way of increasing ability to communicate and cooperate with diverse personalities.

I chose to look at Analytical abilities and Expressiveness. If you plot these on an XY axis, you end up with four quadrants.

If you examine yourself and see where you fit and use some observation to see where others may fit, you can relate to them much more effectively. The Driver or the Amiable has a completely different set of likes and dislikes than the Expressive or Analytical. What thrills one might threaten the other.

This course is still offered today. I would highly recommend it to anyone in a business or professional environment. It will help you be more effective in managing relationships.

Here's a white paper: http://portalcenter.wilsonlearning.com/pls/portal/docs/PAGE/WLC_WEB_SITE/FILE_HOLDER/SOCIAL_STYLES_WHITE_PAPER.PDF

If I can express myself here in a way that doesn't scare you, piss you off or make you color my opinions in a way that makes the point unclear - I will have succeeded in being versatile and hopefully effective.

The Sailorman understands that life is a voyage with perils, unfriendly ports, kinship with diverse shipmates and amazing beauty. I hope my thoughts will help make your voyage into a "Lovely Cruise"